Lucid Forge Predicts the Oscars, 2006
KINDAH'S OSCAR PICKS
Performance by an actor in a leading role
Leonardo DiCaprio - BLOOD DIAMOND
Ryan Gosling - HALF NELSON
Peter O'Toole - VENUS
Will Smith - THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS
Forest Whitaker - THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND
This is a tough category as I really enjoy watching all of these actors on the big screen. Leonardo DiCaprio does a sensational South African accent in Blood Diamond, Ryan Gosling our Canadian rep is captivating in Half Nelson, Will Smith works at his craft and Peter O’Toole has been one of favourites for many years (nobody plays Don Quixote like him!); but I suspect that this years Oscar will go to Forest Whitaker and he’s earned! A massive career of memorable characters, Whitaker finally takes centre stage and gets notice for it. Not many people saw him in Ghost Dog: Way of The Samurai, where he’d already honed his talents eight years ago, but I suspect that many people will be enlightened to Whitaker’s shear presence on the screen in The Last King of Scotland.
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Alan Arkin - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Jackie Earle Haley - LITTLE CHILDREN
Djimon Hounsou - BLOOD DIAMOND
Eddie Murphy - DREAMGIRLS
Mark Wahlberg - THE DEPARTED
Like best actor, none of the nominees for best supporting actor have won an Academy Award previously. Our current day Cary Grant, Mark Wahlberg, brings a strong performance in The Departed, but I suspect that this is not his year to win (sometime later I’m sure of it), and I think after playing mostly television roles, Jackie Earle Haley’s head is spinning to be nominated for an Oscar in one of his rare film performances. Djimon Hounsou always brings an heir of mystery and yet honesty to his characters, but I don’t feel his performance in Blood Diamond outshone his previous nomination in 2003 for best supporting actor for In America. I really feel this race is down to Alan Arkin and Eddie Murphy. In my eyes Arkin’s satirical grandfather is a clear hit, and he has a well earned career to get the award, but I suspect the Oscar will go to Eddie Murphy as he won at both the SAG awards and Golden Globes.
Performance by an actress in a leading role
Penélope Cruz - VOLVER
Judi Dench - NOTES ON A SCANDAL
Helen Mirren - THE QUEEN
Meryl Streep - THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
Kate Winslet - LITTLE CHILDREN
| The Brits are very prominent in this category, and some of the most outstanding British talent at that. Dame Judy Dench in Notes on a Scandal is never the less superfluous than she normally is, but she won an Oscar for her 12 minutes as she pointed out, in Shakespeare In Love. Kate Winslet, who I consider to be simply the finest young actress in film today creates another level of reckless abandonment to her raw acting talent in Little Children, but this Oscar will not be for her (yet again, I believe she will win one without a doubt, one day). Penelope Cruz shows that she has talent as an actress when under the gentle hand of Almodovar, but I feel the nomination is simply a thank you from film lovers for her return to what she does best. Again, this is a tight race as Meryl Streep is Hollywood’s sweetheart and to her modest credit, she is a phenomenal talent. The Academy Award normally goes to her by default whenever she is nominated, but this year we have an exception, as she will lose to a Queen. The Queen in fact, of the British Empire, Helen Mirren brings a complex and irresistible reflection of an often thought cold and stern ruler. Helen Mirren will win this Oscar or I’ll eat my tiara! |  |
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Adriana Barraza - BABEL
Cate Blanchett - NOTES ON A SCANDAL
Abigail Breslin - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Jennifer Hudson - DREAMGIRLS
Rinko Kikuchi – BABEL
This category is the UN representation that we so often strive for in film today, and a nod against ageism. Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi make Babel an intense and evocative film, and Cate Blanchett, clearly the heavyweight in this category already has a little golden statue from her turn as Kate Hepburn in The Aviator; so it appears to me that the two who will need ID to get a drink at the awards ceremony will be where the numbers are at. Abigail Breslin would have won if Jennifer Hudson’s speech wasn’t so good at the Golden Globes. Breslin put in a paltry ‘I don’t know what to say’ and ‘Thank you’ at the SAG awards, whereas Hudson was quoted all night at the Golden Globes for her enamoring speech. My bet is on Jennifer Hudson winning as she is an American Idol alum and a girl who ‘made good’ on an opportunity. She is this year’s Reese Witherspoon; everybody loves her and we can’t wait to hear her speech for the Oscar!
Best animated feature film of the year
CARS
HAPPY FEET
MONSTER HOUSE
Hmmmm, I’m still one of those snooty types who doesn’t think animation should be at the Oscars, especially if the Oscars don’t have a category for best Comic performance yet, an imaginary award both Steve Martin and Bill Murray should have won. So my thoughts are simple for best animated feature film…..drum roll please…..Cars will win. No reasoning further than that really.
Achievement in directing
BABEL
THE DEPARTED
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
THE QUEEN
UNITED 93
Some years the best film is done by the best director, but I suspect this is a slam dunk for no one this year. All directors in this category, except for United 93 director Paul Greengrass, have previously been nominated, one has won twice (Clint Eastwood) and one should have won a long time ago (Martin Scorsese). I suspect that Dirty Harry is in for another dust collector on his mantelpiece; yes, Eastwood will win for best director this year. It’s the Academy’s way of saying “yes we still love you Scorsese, but you have to hone your skills a little more before you can win the little gold guy.” Scorsese will win a lifetime achievement Oscar before he wins for best director, and I have no clue why as his films are captivating and magnanimous on a mythological scale. I also suspect that Stephen Frears would have won if he hadn’t been up against some titans like Eastwood and Scorsese.
Best motion picture of the year
BABEL
THE DEPARTED
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
THE QUEEN
As I said, some years the best director did not in fact, make the best film. This is my most risky prediction by far as I suspect that Letters From Iwo Jima will not win, and I suspect The Queen will not win also, and of course The Departed will not win. Best film will be won by either Little Miss Sunshine or Babel and I base my vote largely on politics when I say that Barrack Obama might like Little Miss Sunshine, and everyone (including Oprah) likes Barrack Obama, therefore it stands to reason that the winner for best motion picture will be Little Miss Sunshine (look for David Hasselhoff with teary eyes in the audience over this win!)
Adapted screenplay
BORAT CULTURAL LEARNINGS OF AMERICA FOR MAKE BENEFIT GLORIOUS NATION OF KAZAKHSTAN
CHILDREN OF MEN
THE DEPARTED
LITTLE CHILDREN
NOTES ON A SCANDAL
This is a tough one as all the films were well executed (and in the case of Borat, Sacha Baron Cohen can’t go into certain countries now without the possibility of execution!). I believe this is a children's race as this category really comes down to Children of Men and Little Children, who both have captivating and intelligent storytelling. Ultimately, I suspect that Little Children will win for best adapted screenplay.
Original screenplay
BABEL
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
PAN'S LABYRINTH
THE QUEEN
Last but not least original screenplay, a writer’s most captivating award to watch – seriously! Babel is a provocative film but has lots of loopholes in the script, and Letters From Iwo Jima was heartfelt and clearly got its point across, but not a strong enough script to have Eastwood’s work take a step back. Pan’s Labyrinth is high concept and Little Miss Sunshine is witty, but I suspect that The Queen will win best original screenplay as it is an intelligent, reflective and almost poetic look at the delicate balance that her royal highness, the Queen had to sustain during a country’s grief. It is that delicate balance that Peter Morgan had so well illuminated, after all, if he had got it wrong we would have seen riots across England reminiscent of the OJ trial riots!
So these are my Oscar picks, for better or worse, in sickness and in health. Did everyone win that I wanted to? No of course not, but I’ll survive. And in a Jerry Springer ‘end of show’ moment of reflection, all I can think about and look forward to this year at the Oscars will be wondering what Reese Witherspoon will be wearing as she passes on the statuette to the newly crowned best actress? Cocktail dresses are not allowed at the Oscars! Seriously though, my annual ritual sit in my PJs and watch the televised show from Red Carpet Fashion to post party wannabes, will be yet again my theme and of course sponsored by Hagen Dazs! Lights, camera, action. . .
ADAM’S OSCAR PICKS
 |
Best Picture Will Win: The toughest call of the evening will either award The Departed or Babel Should Win: Little Miss Sunshine – A real family values movie if there ever was one; a homerun for two first time filmmakers and a funny movie to boot. |
Will Win/Should Win: Martin Scorsese – There’s never been a better time, or a better movie, for Scorsese to get his due. |
 |
Best Actor
Will Win/Should Win: Forest Whittaker – His bombastic performance as Idi Amin was the finest piece of acting by any actor in any movie last year.
Best Actress
Will Win: Helen Mirren - God Save the Queen…For getting writer’s block while writing her acceptance speech.
Should Win: Judi Dench – Her Barbara Covett is a master class in obsession and Dench does it all while playing her cards close to the chest.
Best Supporting Actor Should Win: Djimon Hounsou – Hounsou was the emotional core of Blood Diamond; the personification of the tragic personal cost of the African diamond trade. |
 |
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win/Should Win: Jennifer Hudson – Eight simple words: “And I Am Telling You I'm Not Going”.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: The Departed – The mere fact of turning a Hong Kong action-thriller into a Boston gangster drama is a marvel in and of itself, and the movie’s pretty good too.
Should Win: Children of Men – Alfonso Cuaron made the P.D. James book come to vivid life with topical metaphors about immigration and security.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Little Miss Sunshine – Michael Arndt’s first screenplay was a marvel of comedy and pathos, this would be a well earned win and a chance for the Academy to award this indie gem.
Should Win: Pan’s Labyrinth – It’s highly deserving for both its audacity and its universality.
Best Feature Documentary
Will Win: An Inconvenient Truth – This doc nearly single-handedly re-energized the environmental movement in North America; now that’s praise-worthy of a trophy pat on the back.
Should Win: Jesus Camp – One of the most powerful documentaries I’ve ever seen and a great modern example of cinema verite-style documentary filmmaking.
Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Happy Feet – Definitely the most popular of the nominees, and remember, too, Hollywood’s love affair with those flightless birds from the bottom of the world.
Should Win: Monster House – Every other animated movie this past year focused on talking animals, this one focused on talking people…and an anthropomorphic house.
Login
Create an account
